Grocer-Affiliated Debit Program
Operating domain: Payments · Capability: Affiliated debit / tender migration and program economics
- Value at Issue
- Approved
- Confidence-Adjusted Value Opportunity
- Approved
- Projected Net First-Year Benefit
- Projected
- Verified Net Value Retained
- Finance-Verified
- Executive owner
- M. Chen (simulated)
- Working owner
- J. Whitcombe — Value Case Lead (simulated)
- Confidence
- High
- Data completeness
- 96%
- Next required decision
- Review fee statement
- Decision owner · required by
- D. Alvarez (simulated) · Aug 15, 2027
- Reporting period
- Calendar year · Q2 2027
- Scenario
- Approved base case
- Approved baseline
- Payments Value Case Template v3 · version 7
- Data as of
- Jul 18, 2027
How much value could the debit program create, what will it cost, and under which assumptions does it produce or destroy value?
What do we know?
The approved baseline, assumptions and attribution basis that convert observed loss into a defensible recoverable amount.
Why does it matter financially?
The confidence-adjusted opportunity and the projected first-year benefit are set here, net of solution cost and performance fee.
What must happen next?
Approve the baseline and the financial case so an intervention can be selected against a fixed reference.
Baseline v4.2
Approved baselines are immutable. A changed assumption creates a new governed version; it never rewrites a prior decision or a verified period.
Scope
What is inside the baseline, and what is explicitly excluded.
| Dimension | In scope | Exclusions | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legal entities | Gelson's Markets, Inc. | Franchise and licensed fuel operations | Observed |
| Banners | Gelson's (all banners in the operating group) | None | Observed |
| Stores | 27 operating stores open the full measurement period | 2 stores opened mid-period, 1 closed store | Observed |
| Channels | POS (in-store) and ecommerce (owned site and app) | Third-party marketplace delivery orders settled by the marketplace | Observed |
| Tenders | Third-party credit and third-party debit | Cash, cheque, EBT/SNAP, gift card, manufacturer coupon | Observed |
| Customers | Loyalty-identified shoppers with at least one card transaction | Unidentified cash-only shoppers | Observed |
| Transactions | Settled card transactions with a matched processor fee record | Voided, reversed and unsettled authorizations | Observed |
Data sources and completeness
- Processor monthly statementsAs of Apr 14, 2027100.0% completeObserved
- Acquirer settlement filesAs of Apr 14, 2027100.0% completeObserved
- POS TLOG tender extractAs of Apr 10, 202799.8% completeObserved
- Ecommerce order and payment recordsAs of Apr 10, 202799.4% completeObserved
- Loyalty identity matchAs of Apr 2, 202771.0% completeObserved
- General ledger payment-expense accountsAs of Apr 20, 2027100.0% completeObserved
Change history
Superseded versions remain readable and are never rewritten.
- v4.2May 18, 2027Segment fee classification completed for processor and network components. Approved.
- v4.1Apr 2, 2027Ecommerce debit segment separated from POS debit. Superseded.
- v4.0Feb 11, 2027Initial payments baseline from processor statements. Superseded.
Payment Baseline
How the grocer pays for payments today, by tender, with the highest-leverage opportunity called out.
Tender volume mix
Cost contribution by tender
Tender economics
| Tender | Annual volume | Transactions | Effective rate | Payment cost | Avg basket | Cost / txn | % of cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit | $475.60M | 9,900,000 | 2.35% | $11,176,600 | $48.04 | $1.13 | 81.6% |
| Debit | $262.40M | 6,200,000 | 0.80% | $2,099,200 | $42.32 | $0.34 | 15.3% |
| Cash | $65.60M | 1,900,000 | 0.35% | $229,600 | $34.53 | $0.12 | 1.7% |
| Other | $16.40M | 400,000 | 1.20% | $196,800 | $41.00 | $0.49 | 1.4% |
| Total | $820.00M | 18,400,000 | 1.67% | $13,702,200 | — | — | 100.0% |
Credit represents 58% of annual purchase volume but approximately 81.6% of payment-acceptance cost, making credit-to-debit migration the highest-priority payment opportunity.
Illustrative annual savings if 10 percentage points of purchase volume moved from credit (2.35%) to debit (0.80%).
Data & Assumptions
Upload tender data to replace the illustrative baseline. Edit assumptions to update the Value Case. Sources and confidence are tracked on every input.
Upload payment tender data
CSV columns: tender, annual_volume, transaction_count, effective_rate
Upload history
No files uploaded. Illustrative baseline in use.
Financial assumptions
| Assumption | Value | Unit | Source | Confidence | Updated | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrolment rate | % | ManagementAssumption | 55% | Nov 1, 2025 | ||
| Active-use rate | % | ManagementAssumption | 60% | Nov 1, 2025 | ||
| Monthly program spend | USD/mo | ManagementAssumption | 70% | Nov 1, 2025 | ||
| Credit-migration percentage | % | ManagementAssumption | 65% | Nov 1, 2025 | ||
| Incremental-spend lift | % | ManagementAssumption | 55% | Nov 1, 2025 | ||
| Gross margin | % | Observed | 95% | Nov 1, 2025 | ||
| Grocer revenue share | % | ProviderQuote | 80% | Nov 1, 2025 | ||
| Grocer-funded rewards | % | ProviderQuote | 80% | Nov 1, 2025 | ||
| Annual provider cost | USD | ProviderQuote | 80% | Nov 1, 2025 | ||
| One-time implementation cost | USD | ProviderQuote | 80% | Nov 1, 2025 | ||
| Nourishe success fee | % | Approved | 95% | Nov 1, 2025 |
Current tender data (from Baseline)
| Tender | Volume | Txns | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Credit | $475.60M | 9,900,000 | 2.35% |
| Debit | $262.40M | 6,200,000 | 0.80% |
| Cash | $65.60M | 1,900,000 | 0.35% |
| Other | $16.40M | 400,000 | 1.20% |
Decision Brief
Gate: Do we approve the baseline, two-ledger value model, attribution boundaries, scenario and financial case for provider and operating-model evaluation?Do we approve the baseline, two-ledger value model, attribution boundaries, scenario and financial case for provider and operating-model evaluation?
- Owner
- D. Alvarez (simulated)
- Due by
- Aug 15, 2027
- Gate action
- Review fee statement
- Open provider-credit dispute
- Cross-case overlap review pending finance